bbachracWPBayesian Analysis (Ref01; Ref02; Ref03; Ref04) of Women’s Family Planning Timed Choices and moral, ethical, and legal approaches. When should the State or Federal Government deny Women freedom of Family Planning choice?
The issues are politically framed for wedge issues as Pro-Choice or Pro-Life but the subject is actually a Women’s right to Family Planning
A healthy women could have a child every 18-20 months during her reproductive life span or approximately 20 children. In the US, Women have averaged less than 2 children since 1970. How does one categorize the 18 lives that have been denied life?
What would be the impact on society of Government mandated unrestrained birthing by Women or the denial of contraception?
UN Population Forecast (Ref05) The world population is projected to reach 8.5 billion in 2030, and to increase further to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100 The United States Census Bureau population forecast 400 Million in 2060. (Ref06)
At birth, a healthy female human has approximately 1 million to 2 million genetically unique eggs (oocytes). By the time of puberty, only about 300,000 remain. Of these, only about 500 will be ovulated during a woman’s reproductive lifetime. (Ref07)
A fertilized egg (zygote) can take a week before implantation at which point a woman is defined as pregnant. Only 50% of fertilized eggs reach that stage (Ref08). Of the initial pregnancies, ~25% end in a miscarriage during the first trimester. (Ref09)
In the US ~12% of pregnancies are terminated for Family Planning Choices when corrected for miscarriage. Most of those are in the first trimester and by Women who already have multiple children. 40% of terminated pregnancies are choices by unmarried women.
Viability of a fetus to survive outside the womb (approximately at 24 weeks) has generally been a choice boundary for a healthy woman whose life is not threatened. In the United States, the Maternal Mortality Rate is 23.8 per 100,000 live births. Remaining pregnant carries risks with no guarantee a healthy child will be born. 3% of children have birth defects at birth and 5% identified by five years. In 2020, the infant mortality rate in the United States was 5.4 deaths per 1,000 live births of the ~3.6 million live births
10% of live birth pregnancies end prematurely or pre term. Prematurity can cause long-term health problems for babies. This can have long-lasting financial effects and can affect a person’s education and ability to work. The United States spends $26.2 billion each year. in medical costs for children born prematurely. U.S. Health Care costs from birth defects total almost $23 B a Year. (Ref10)
Currently 16% of all US kids nationwide were living in poverty in 2020.
And what of the outcomes for Women for whom lack of Family Planning Choice results in unwanted children. The UCSF The Turnaway Study:“The main finding of The Turnaway Study is that terminating a pregnancy does not harm the health and well being of women, but in fact, being denied an abortion results in worse financial, health and family outcomes.
Without Family Planning choices, Women with un-wanted pregnancies will be subject to undue hardship in seeking alternatives and many Women will die or become impaired for life.
Below are general questions about ideation or conceptual thought for data collection based on classifications.
Class FP01 includes
i group of normal or healthy females
ii group of normal or healthy pregnancies
Case FP01a in the period before a fetus is deemed viable.
Case FP01b in the period after a fetus is deemed viable.
A woman has a number of family planning choices,
1 To purposefully not become pregnant
2 To purposefully become Pregnant
3 To unintentionally become pregnant
4 To terminate a pregnancy
5 To carry a pregnancy to term
Class FP02 includes
i group of normal or healthy females
ii group of abnormal pregnancies: structural; chemical; genetic
Class FP03 includes
i group of normal or healthy females
ii group of complicated pregnancies that threaten maternal life
Class FP04 includes
i group of females at risk from pregnancy
ii group of all pregnancies
QA) What control should the government have in constraining family planning choices?
QB) Is purposefully not becoming pregnant a virtual abortion?
Both 1)-virtually and 4)-really prevent the emergence of a new life.
References
Ref01 Bayesian Methods in Social Policy Evaluations
Ref02 A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis: Applications to Developmental Research
Ref03 Bayesian spatial analysis of socio-demographic factors influencing pregnancy termination and its residual geographic variation among ever-married women of reproductive age in Bangladesh
Ref04 Estimating progress towards meeting women’s contraceptive needs in 185 countries: A Bayesian hierarchical modelling study
Ref05 UN Global Issues Population
Ref06 US Census Bureau International Database (IDB)
Ref07 Medical News Today: How many eggs does a woman have?
Ref08 UCSF Conception: How it Works
Ref09 Medical News Today What are the average miscarriage rates by week?
Ref10 Medicinet U.S. Health Care Costs From Birth Defects Total Almost $23 Billion a Year